Ricky & Stick - The "Seems OK to Me" Rule Can Lead to Disaster
Ricky & Stick main page
|
|
|
When we have no specific knowledge about the needed quantity of some resource, whether dollars, labor days, or laundry detergent, the only thing we can do is make an estimate. What with all of the pressure we are typically under, it's not uncommon to take an approach based on faith in our own ability to guess well and fueled by optimism; this is the “seems ok to me” syndrome. Sometimes we get lucky and everything comes out fine: a program manager, looking at some unfamiliar metric, with no context and no explanation, might make an excellent decision. And on a different day, Ricky might guess the right amount of detergent to use.
But, sadly, guesses like these often turn out to be wildly inaccurate. All too often, the floor gets sopping wet and Mom has to call the repairman.
It's really okay to opt for prudence, especially if there's no other guide. Ricky (and, it seems, a large number of teenagers) could take the time to read the label on the detergent box. Program managers, faced with a difficult decision and nothing on which to base it, could seek out assistance. Perhaps there's some Web site, some guidebook, some other source of information available somewhere, with advice, based on experience, to which you can turn.In brief, wisdom is better than guesses, and there's a lot of wisdom out there that's often ignored. The wisdom that exists may only be partially applicable, and there may still be a lot of guesstimation to do. Or maybe there's no such wisdom to be found at all. But in that case, you're no worse off than when you started. And no one can later call you on the carpet and say: “Why didn’t you ask Bob?”
For More Information
Send comments or questions to asp-requests@sei.cmu.edu
return to top
Ricky & Stick main page
Acquisition Support main page