The Future of Software Engineering: II

NEWS AT SEI

Author

Watts S. Humphrey

This library item is related to the following area(s) of work:

Process Improvement

This article was originally published in News at SEI on: June 1, 2001

This is the second of several columns on the future of software engineering. The first column focused on trends in application programming, particularly related to quality. This column reviews data on programmer staffing and then covers application-programming skills. Future columns deal with trends in systems programming and the implications of these trends for software engineering and software engineers.

In my previous column, I started a discussion of the future of software engineering and reviewed the trends in application programming. In this column, I consider the growing demand for people to write application programs. I also explore the implications of the current trends in application programming. In the next few columns, I will examine the trends in systems programming and comment on the implications of these trends for software engineering and software engineers. While the positions I take and the opinions I express are likely to be controversial, my intent is to stir up debate and hopefully to shed some light on what I believe are important issues. Also, as is true in all of these columns, the opinions are entirely my own.

Some Facts

The demand for software engineers is at an all-time high, and it continues to increase. Based on recent census data, there were 568,000 software professionals in the U.S. in 1996. In 2007, there are projected to be 697,000 [Clark 00]. Since 177,000 are also projected to leave the field during this time, this implies a ten-year need for more than 300,000 new programmers. That is a 50% gross addition to the current programming population.

The Census Bureau estimate of 568,000 programmers seems low to me, and I suspect this is because of the criteria used to determine who was counted as a programmer. Howard Rubin quotes a number of 1.9 million programmers as the current US programming population [Rubin 99]. I have also seen data showing that the number of programmers in the US doubled from 1986 to 1996. While good data are sparse for such an important field, the demand for programmers has clearly increased in the past ten years, and it is likely to continue increasing in the future.

If you consider that most professionals in most fields of engineering and science must now write at least some software to do their jobs, the number of people who write, modify, fix, and support software must be very large. If the growth trends implied by the census data apply to the entire population of casual and full-time programmers, the demand for new programmers in the next ten years is likely to run into the millions.

Future Needs

Judging by past trends, it is clear that just about every industrial organization will need more people with application programming skills and that most programming groups will be seriously understaffed. Since many software groups are already understaffed, and the current university graduation rate of software professionals is only about 35,000 a year, we have a problem [US 99]. In general terms, there are only two ways to address the application-programming problem.

  1. Somehow increase the supply of new programmers.
  2. Figure out how to write more programs without using more programmers.

Since it takes a long time to increase the graduation rate of software professionals, the principal approach to the first alternative must be to do more of what we are doing today—that is, to move more software offshore and to bring more software-skilled immigrants into the US

While many organizations are establishing software laboratories in other countries, particularly India, this is a limited solution. The principal need is for skilled software professionals who understand the needs of businesses and can translate these needs into working applications. There is no question that the coding and testing work could be sent offshore, but that would require good designs or, at least, clear and precise requirements. Since producing the requirements and design is the bulk of the software job, going offshore can only be a small part of the solution.

Obtaining more software-skilled immigrants is an attractive alternative, particularly because India alone graduates about 100,000 English-speaking software professionals a year. However, the US has tight visa restrictions, and many other groups also have claims on the available slots. Also, since the demand for software skills is increasing rapidly in India, and since many Indian professionals can now find attractive opportunities at home, the available numbers of Indian immigrants will likely be limited in the future.

The Automobile Industry Analogy

To examine the alternative of writing more programs without adding more programmers, consider the automobile industry. Back before Henry Ford, only the wealthy could afford cars. Then Henry Ford made the automobile affordable for ordinary folks. Once the manufacturers started catering to the needs of the masses, the automobile industry changed rapidly.

Many innovations were required before people could feel comfortable driving without a chauffeur. They needed the closed automobile body, automatic starters, heaters, clutches, transmissions, and a host of other progressively more automatic and convenient features. This combination of innovations made operating an automobile simple and easy for almost anyone.

With the aid of these innovations, people could learn to drive without chauffeurs. When all this happened, the chauffeur business went into a tailspin. Soon, as the comfort, convenience, and reliability of cars increased, driving an automobile was no longer a specialty; it became a general skill required of just about everyone. Today, most people learn to drive an automobile before they get out of high school. While there are still professional drivers, the vast majority of driving is now done by the general public.

The Computer Field Today

Today, the computer field is much like the early days of the automobile industry. Many professionals have learned to use computing systems, but few are willing to rely on them for critical work, at least not without expert help and support. In the computer field, the chauffeur equivalents are with us in the guise of the experts who develop applications, install and tailor operating systems, and help us recover from frequent system crashes and failures. Even on the Internet, our systems today often exhibit strange behavior and present us with cryptic messages. While these systems are far easier to use than before, they are not yet usable by the general public.

For computing systems to be widely used, we need systems that work consistently and are problem free. We also need support systems that serve the same functions as automobile starters and automatic transmissions. Then professionals in most fields will be able to automate their own applications without needing skilled programmers to handle the arcane system details.

Another prerequisite to the widespread use of computing systems is that the professionals in most fields be able to produce high-quality application programs with little or no professional help. The real breakthrough will come when it is easier to learn to write good software than it is to learn about most business or scientific applications. Then, instead of requiring that skilled software people learn about each application area, it will be more economical and efficient to have the application experts learn to develop their own software. At that point, software engineering will become a general skill much like driving, mathematics, or writing, and every professional will be able to use computing systems to meet the vast bulk of his or her application needs.

Growing System Size and Complexity

While such a change will be an enormous help, it will not address all aspects of application programming. To see why, consider the trends in the size and complexity of application programs. If history is any guide, future application programs will be vastly larger and more complex than they are today. This means that the development of such systems will change in a number of important ways.

As I wrote in the prior column, the first and possibly most important change is in quality. Those who need software simply will be unable to use programs to conduct their businesses unless they are of substantially higher quality than they are today. The second trend is equally significant: the current cottage-industry approach to developing application programs must give way to a more professional and well-managed discipline. This is not just because of the increasing size of the programs and their more demanding quality specifications, but also because the business of producing such programs will grow beyond the capability of most people to master quickly.

In other words, the day has largely passed when we could hire somebody who was reasonably familiar with the programming language of choice and expect him or her to rapidly become productive at developing application programs. As application programs become larger and more sophisticated, the required application knowledge and experience will increase as well. Soon, the cost and time required to build this application knowledge will be prohibitive. Therefore, a host of new methods must be developed to make application programming more economical and far less time consuming than it is today.

Reuse

My argument to this point has concerned getting more people to write programs. However, there is another alternative: finding ways to produce more applications with fewer people. One proposed solution to this challenge is through reuse. While this seems like an attractive possibility, recent history has not been encouraging. In fact, history indicates that reuse technology will be largely confined to building progressively larger libraries of language and system functions. Unfortunately, this added language complexity will cause other problems. This is not because reuse is unattractive; it is just at too low a level to address the application needs of most users.

The software community has been adding functional capability to programming languages for the 47 years since I wrote my first program. This approach has not solved the programming problems of the past, nor is it likely to solve those of the future. The principal reason is that by adding more microscopic functions to our languages, we merely restate the application development problem in slightly richer terms.

For example, when I wrote my first program we had to control the starting and stopping of the I/O devices and the transfer of each character. Now such functions are handled automatically for us, but we are faced instead with much more sophisticated languages. Instead of a simple language you could summarize on a single sheet of paper, we now need entire textbooks.

Granted, increased language richness reduces the detailed system knowledge required to manage the computer’s functions, but it still leaves us with the overall design problem, as well as the problem of determining what the design is supposed to do for the user. Then, the application programmer has the final challenge of translating the design into a functioning and reliable program.

This leads to the problem that will force us out of the cottage-industry approach to programming. That is the simple impossibility of quickly becoming fluent in all the languages and functions needed to produce the complex application systems of the future. While reuse in traditional terms may be helpful for the professional programming population, it is directly counter to the need to make our technology more accessible to people who are not full-time programming professionals.

Packaged Applications

To handle the volume needs of many users, companies are starting to market packaged applications much like those offered by SAP and Oracle. That is, they produce essentially prepackaged application systems that can be configured in prescribed ways. Rather than custom-designing each application, this industry will increasingly develop families of tailorable application systems. The users will then find the available system that comes closest to meeting their requirements and use its customization capabilities to tailor the system to their business needs.

To make these systems easily tailorable by their customers, companies will design their systems with limited, but generic, capabilities. Then, in addition to tailoring the system, the users must also adjust their business procedures to fit the available facilities of the system. As the experiences of SAP and others have demonstrated, this approach is not trouble free, but it can provide users with large and sophisticated application systems at much lower cost than a full custom-application development.

Judging by the growth of SAP, Oracle, and others, this has been an attractive strategy. Rather than developing applications to meet an unlimited range of possible user needs, users will increasingly adapt their business operations to fit the functions of the available application systems. While this represents a form of reuse, it is at a much higher level than the approaches generally proposed, and it generally requires a thoughtfully architected family of application products or product lines. Just as with the transportation, housing, and clothing industries, for example, once people see the enormous cost of customized products, they usually settle for what they can find on the rack.

Application Categories

Application development work in the future will likely involve three categories of work:

  1. developing prepackaged applications that users can tailor to their needs
  2. tailoring business systems to use prepackaged application systems
  3. developing and supporting unique applications that cannot be created with prepackaged software

The programmers needed for the first category will be professionals much like those needed for developing systems programs, but they will generally have considerable application knowledge. I will write more about this category in later columns.

For category two, we will probably see a substantial growth in the volume of application customization. The people doing this work will be more like business consultants than programmers, and many will not even know how to design and develop programs. These people will be thoroughly trained in the packages that they are customizing and helping to install.

The reason for the third category is that, even though the prepackaged application strategy will likely handle most bread-and-butter applications, it will not handle those applications needed to support new and innovative business activities. Since these applications will not have been used before, nobody will know how to produce prepackaged solutions. As a result, there will be a volume of applications that cannot be solved by prepackaged solutions. Therefore, even with a wide variety of available prepackaged applications, the need for customized application development will not disappear.

Custom Application Programming

Custom application work must be handled by people who know how to write programs and who also understand the application specialty. These people must be experts on a wide variety of specialties, and must be able to write high-quality programs. For these people, we must develop suitable methods and training—to help them develop quality programs on their own. Even though they will not work full time as professional programmers, I believe that this category of programmer will ultimately comprise the vast majority of the people writing programs. Since they will not spend all—or even most—of their time writing programs, we must simplify our languages and develop new languages that are designed for casual use. We must develop tools and support systems that will help these people to produce high-quality programs at reasonable rates and costs. We must also tailor support systems so that writing applications to run on top of a well-designed systems program will not require extensive technical support and hotline consultation.

In sum, what I am proposing is that, instead of having more and more trained programming professionals, we will solve our programming needs by teaching everybody to program. Although these people will not be professional programmers, they will be even more important to the software community because they will be our most demanding customers. They will be operating at the limits of the systems we software professionals provide, and they will be the first to identify important new opportunities. Therefore, they will probably be the source of much of the future innovation in our field.

In the next few columns, I will write about the trends in system programs, what they mean for the programming community, and the implications of these trends for software engineering.

Acknowledgements

In writing papers and columns, I make a practice of asking associates to review early drafts. For this column, I particularly appreciate the helpful comments and suggestions of David Carrington, Sholom Cohen, Don McAndrews, Julia Mullaney, Bill Peterson, and Marsha Pomeroy-Huff.

In Closing, an Invitation to Readers

In these columns, I write about software issues and the impact of quality and process on engineers and their organizations. However, I am most interested in addressing issues that you feel are important. So, please drop me a note with your comments, questions, or suggestions. I will read your notes and consider them in planning future columns.

Thanks for your attention and please stay tuned in.

Watts S. Humphrey
watts@sei.cmu.edu

References

[Clark 00] David Clark. "Are too Many Programmers Too Narrowly Trained?" IEEE Computer, March 2000: pp. 12-15.

[Rubin 99] Howard Rubin. "Global Software Economics." Cutter IT Journal, March 1999: pp. 6-21.

[US 99] The US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. National Education Survey (HEGIS), "Degrees and Formal Awards Conferred." "Completions" survey and Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), June 1999.

About the Author

Watts S. Humphrey founded the Software Process Program at the SEI. He is a fellow of the institute and is a research scientist on its staff. From 1959 to 1986, he was associated with IBM Corporation, where he was director of programming quality and process. His publications include many technical papers and six books. His most recent books are Managing the Software Process (1989), A Discipline for Software Engineering (1995), Managing Technical People (1996), and Introduction to the Personal Software Process(1997). He holds five US patents. He is a member of the Association for Computing Machinery, a fellow of the Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers, and a past member of the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award Board of Examiners. He holds a BS in physics from the University of Chicago, an MS in physics from the Illinois Institute of Technology, and an MBA from the University of Chicago.

The views expressed in this article are the author's only and do not represent directly or imply any official position or view of the Software Engineering Institute or Carnegie Mellon University. This article is intended to stimulate further discussion about this topic.

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