Fall 2014 SEI Research Review: Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE)

QUELCE synthesizes the use of several well-known tools and methods including scenario modeling, Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modeling, Dependency Structure Matrices (DSM), and Monte Carlo simulation. QUELCE allows us to quantify uncertainty, use subjective inputs, depict influential relationships, control the scale of the problem, and document the assumptions underlying the estimate. The use of existing CERs means that estimation relationships do not have to be recalibrated.